No Real Chance to Win by June 1944.
By June 1944, the Germans window of opportunity to win the war was over. Setting aside the material advantages possessed by the Allies and focusing strictly on strategy, I argue that the Germans had already lost the strategic war. This was due to the Germans losing the initiative and always remaining on the defensive after the surrender in North Africa. A war can be won, if a combatant maintains the initiative, even against superior forces this because the one with the initiative can dictate the time and place of battle. By time the of the invasion of Normandy, the Germans not only did not have the initiative, but mentally were ready to lose. If not for the hedgerows of Normandy, the Germans would have not been able to hold up the Allies in Normandy for as long as they did. This is not to disparage the German soldier who was on the whole much better than his counterpart in the Allied or Russian army. The initiative to the leaders and not the soldiers.
The Germans last had the initiative in February 1943 (Kharkov). This was likely the last time, the Germans could have possibly won or at least obtained a draw in the war. This is because they never had the initiative after this once they lost it later in the year. They would have had to have followed up with another success such as Kharkov or the Kasserine Pass. Then another one, and really a whole string of successes, much like coming back from being down 1-3 in the World Series. Possible, but not probable. As it was, Kasserine Pass was a poor accomplishment for the eventual total loss of all forces in North Africa. The Germans strategically would have been better off by simply cutting their losses in North Africa instead of committing so many soldiers that would be missed later. The decision to commit troops in such high numbers in North Africa at such a late date in the war was possible because the Germans still possessed some initiative in that theater at that time. Ultimately, such a large move, though impressive, used up much of the Germans ability to move forces from one point of the theater to the other. The Germans chose to have a major conflict in Tunis instead of some other location in the theater. Imagine if those North African Troops had been available during the fight of the boot of Italy? On the other hand, Kharkov could have been something the Germans could have built upon. Unfortunately, they followed it up with the Battle at Kursk. There were weather issues involved in the delay to attack Kursk, but the Germans wasted a great deal of time in other ways, and ultimately by the time the attack came the Germans frittered away their initiative on the Eastern Front. Kursk was a catastrophe more because the Germans permanently loss the initiative, then for the forces they loss. Certainly, by June of 1944, the Germans did not have the initiative and were not capable of gaining the initiative.
The Germans last had the initiative in February 1943 (Kharkov). This was likely the last time, the Germans could have possibly won or at least obtained a draw in the war. This is because they never had the initiative after this once they lost it later in the year. They would have had to have followed up with another success such as Kharkov or the Kasserine Pass. Then another one, and really a whole string of successes, much like coming back from being down 1-3 in the World Series. Possible, but not probable. As it was, Kasserine Pass was a poor accomplishment for the eventual total loss of all forces in North Africa. The Germans strategically would have been better off by simply cutting their losses in North Africa instead of committing so many soldiers that would be missed later. The decision to commit troops in such high numbers in North Africa at such a late date in the war was possible because the Germans still possessed some initiative in that theater at that time. Ultimately, such a large move, though impressive, used up much of the Germans ability to move forces from one point of the theater to the other. The Germans chose to have a major conflict in Tunis instead of some other location in the theater. Imagine if those North African Troops had been available during the fight of the boot of Italy? On the other hand, Kharkov could have been something the Germans could have built upon. Unfortunately, they followed it up with the Battle at Kursk. There were weather issues involved in the delay to attack Kursk, but the Germans wasted a great deal of time in other ways, and ultimately by the time the attack came the Germans frittered away their initiative on the Eastern Front. Kursk was a catastrophe more because the Germans permanently loss the initiative, then for the forces they loss. Certainly, by June of 1944, the Germans did not have the initiative and were not capable of gaining the initiative.
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